14.34

Well GU bounced to the exact pip off 1.5600 and has since recovered a little but is still struggling with 1.5645-1.5655 area as it’s just bounced again leaving an ugly wick on 15 m timeframe.

The original TUFXP had another loss for -31 pips for the day whereas I booked +20 pips so pretty pleased with that turnaround!

I’m off now as I’m done for the day but good luck if trading.

13.27

Only just spotted this whilst browsing my charts but the warning signs were clear for a reversal on the hourly GBPUSD as shown by the bearish divergence:

If those closes beneath 1.5600 then 1.5550 is very much on the cards.

12.56

GBPUSD getting whacked big style. No sooner do I post the trendline than it breaks! lol. A close beneath might see some further movement down. 1.5625 didn’t hold up. The major support would be 1.5550 as mentioned earlier in the day.

Range is still 79 pips so a break of 1.5582 would see that extend. Unless it’s a below average day, I reckon there is 50-60 pips worth of movement left.

Shall be watching 1.5550 closely.

12.13

With the obvious uptrend taking place within GU I thought I’d try and see how a trendline looks. I added this a couple of hrs ago and its bounced pretty much perfectly within the last hour.

It appears as if some profit taking is taking place as it still can’t quite manage to hold above 1.5650 and if it does I believe 1.5700 should be within range.

For support I’d think 1.5620-1.5625 should provide some support along with the 85 EMA which sits at 1.5610 currently. A close beneath 1.5600 would indicate that the uptrend has paused for the time being.

Below is a daily chart with an additional trendline. As you can see there is a void of space between the hourly trendline which is hugging the current prices and the daily trendline. The 200 SMA represents an important area. If GU can hold above this level, then further gains can be expected. It would be a case of waiting to see what happened if price action went to the yellow circle.

09.20

GU dropped down to 1.5611 but has since revived and now pushing 1.5640, 1.5650 needs to be cleared before 1.5685 and above can be considered.

EU finally managed to breakout but much will depend how it reacts from here. Range has quickly shot up to 90 pips, already above yesterday’s quota.

I’m off for a break, hope you’ve had a good morning.

08.22

Success!! London eventually passes 1.5625 and brings it home for my trade with TUFXP and a couple of other open trades.

Original CM method took a loss for -24 after spread on the short which I’ve highlighted.

I was beginning to doubt whether it could be broken but thankfully it broke through but interestingly it’s stopped right at 1.5650 which I thought it might.

Range currently stands at 70 pips and any further move north will increase that.

EU still trying to negotiate 1.3045.

08.06

Will it ever break? Three attempts to crack this level of 1.5625 and still it fails after London open. Those are three ugly spikes on the 15 min timeframe and I think the bulls are running out of chances to pass this level. Needs to happen quickly otherwise GU will run down to 1.5600 again.

07.44

EU once again clatters into 1.3041 and bounces right off, no surprises there!

GU also bouncing like a goodun and still failing to clear 1.5625.

TUFXP went short on the original method but wasn’t valid for me, however, I am long with a valid trade but it’s drifting down as I type. Perhaps should have hedged when the short went to -16! Will wait and see what happens but got an uncomfortable feeling at the min.

01.23

It’s safe to say Wednesday wasn’t my finest day but I’ve slept on it and feel better already and the small positives to take from it is that my basic calls were correct and that is what I need to stick with.

Some interesting patterns emerging on EURUSD and GBPUSD. Both are still struggling to break higher and today could be a pivotal day.

Starting with EURUSD; Last two days have formed a doji candle on the daily timeframe. These usually represent a bearish reversal so unless EU can reach fresh highs today and hold on to them, it could heading back down beneath 1.2900.

GBPUSD has managed to close above the 200 day SMA which sits at 1.5550 which is also close to yesterday’s low and I have it highlighted as a potential area for a strong bounce should GU elect to go lower today. There are also several trendline supports in place, however, I would like to see GU make fresh highs also but it’s currently bounced right off my cam level for a reversal. A close above 1.5625 would open open 1.5650 and above.

Both pairs have traded in a narrow range the last couple of days and GU didn’t make it to triple figures for the first time in ages. Not a lot of economic activity today so I’m not 100% sure I’ll see the price action I’d like to see.