Dubai Or To Sell? » MT4

Monday Rewind

dubaitrader — Tue, 13 Jul 2010 04:46:58 +0000

I did initially have some worries about trading on Monday as prior to 6.30 AM there was precious little movement and GBPUSD was looking particularly ugly. A couple of strong sell candles formed and a trade signalled on TUFXP and not for the first time lately, a discrepancy was found between different users of TUFXP. My stochs, whilst heading down, were still okay for an entry but for another user the stochs were well over the oversold line. It is a little worrying how different the data can be at times but at least we got the same signal this time!

1.5000 was also a major concern and when it bounced to 1.5027 I thought my goose was cooked but thankfully strong selling pressure won out and a nice victory was gained and I also managed to hang onto it for +33.

I’ve always questioned the wisdom of TUFXP employing a sole company to providing a data feed and they swear blind they do not receieve any commissions off IQFeed which I find extremely difficult to believe. Why is it the likes of Fxpro, FXDD, Alpari, OANDA can all provide excellent feeds for no cost yet IQFeed charge over $88 a month for a sub-standard service that regularly drops out which in turn affects the outcomes of PTPs.

A friend in the trading room, Mike, mentioned you can request to pay 12 months upfront and you can receive 50% discount on your subscription. Thanks for that Mike!

I hope everyone enjoyed Graham’s first post, he’s still having a few problems logging onto the blog but I’m sure he’ll get around the technology soon

Onwards and upwards..

New Blogger

dubaitrader — Fri, 25 Jun 2010 06:49:18 +0000

Yesterday was a massive day in terms of workload and by midnight I was completely exhausted, 18 hr days aren’t such a good idea afterall! A win yesterday for TUFXP pretty early on but interestingly it wouldn’t have been a qualifier using the rules I’m testing. The stochs were indicating oversold and the price literally clipped entry and went all the way to -19 before dropping enough to hit scalp. Maybe that’s an avenue to explore by going in at a much better price and therefore massively increasing risk:reward. A ‘perfect’ setup never occurred so it was a blank day, there have been a couple of days like that from testing it. I managed to get April and May finished and the results are very encouraging. A valid setup came today and whilst if you took the TESS scalp you’d of had +18 (after spread) I didn’t get out as I always make sure I get my +20 after spread so only b/e on this trade. On this occasion its cost me but hopefully there will be another signal at some point today that I can take advantage of. I’d like to finish the week on a good note after a very dodgy start so I’m hoping the forex gods give me a pass! I’d be interested to hear from users to know whether they take the scalp for +18 or go for 20 after spread. I was speaking to a friend in the trading room and he enters as per TESS so theoretically, he could end up in an invalid trade as TESS goes off bid price, not ask, which makes all the difference when buying. Another example of when looking at backtesting how this would be a questionable trade. When watching live, the 20 EMA was solid green.

Lol, no sooner do I get stopped out at b/e when it rushes all the way back up! Might be telling me something..

I’m pleased to announce that there will be a new blogger joining me on this blog. His name is Graham Coia and has been around the block a few times! He’ll be testing different forex systems independently and giving his findings right here. There will be no affiliate links and rest assured I’m sure he’ll do a great job.

One Down

dubaitrader — Tue, 22 Jun 2010 07:12:53 +0000

As I’m in blog mode I might as well post today’s result. A nice win early on and I’m glad the winning trade is out-of-the-way as the UK budget is released later today and god only knows what effect it will have on the market. I don’t believe the two timeframe method would have had this trade as I didn’t see a corresponding signal on 10 or 15 min timeframe. I took +22 as I felt if the down move came, it would test S2 as indicated by TESS and it was nice to be proven right with a fair-sized bounce coming off S2. A maximum of 28 pips was available after spread. Only 3 more of these and it’ll into profit for the week! Gulp!

Positive Outlook

dubaitrader — Tue, 15 Jun 2010 06:47:57 +0000

I always find it amazing what some positive thinking can do to your outlook on trading and results. Whilst positive thinking will not turn losers into winners, it certainly gives a better mindset. For some reason before I started trading yesterday, I had a good feeling about the week ahead. Everything felt right, I had a pleasant day before trading yesterday and likewise today. By starting at 3pm, it means I have a fair wait to get trading and on occasions it is frustrating but on good days it is enjoyable. I might have to re read that tomorrow when I’m looking after Ava from 4pm til bedtime as my Wife is working a late afternoon shift!

The saga of our shipping is in limbo as I’ve been told it could be another 4 weeks BEFORE it actually leaves Dubai as it’s a part consignment. It struck me as odd as to why they were so much cheaper than other companies and I guess I now know why!

So a simple short win for TUFXP today and I’m ready to switch off and relax and watch Deal or No Deal until later this evening when I’ll look at my EURUSD trades. They’ve been in a frustrating pattern of late but I’m taking it in my stride and thinking long term instead of small windows of time. I’m also doing my best at keeping everything nice and simple, I’ve read quite a few good articles recently about traders trying to over complicate matters and getting caught out, which lead me to finding out about a guy called Dan Zanger. It the late 90′s during the I.T boom, he set a world record for the biggest % gain in a personal portfolio. Guesses? 29,000%!!! $10,000 into $18,000,000. The tools he used? A simple chart pattern and volume.

First Week Over

dubaitrader — Sat, 05 Jun 2010 03:16:16 +0000

Another week is wrapped up and my first full week trading in Australia. Some things don’t change such as how fast the week goes when trading!

CM doesn’t trade on NFP Fridays but I personally find them to be a profitable day if you can be done and dusted before a few hrs of release and then once the news has settled in, a significant trend usually forms. My first trade was a loss with TUFXP for 26 pips and I had to wait several hrs before my next trade which thankfully won, so a small loss of 6 pips for TUFXP yesterday.

One thing that has been troubling me is to which strategies to trade as I believe I have at least 4 profitable strategies now. I have decided upon 2 strategies for my main bank and I will dedicate a 2nd bank for the other 2 in due course. One thing I did learn from my previous run was that trading all strategies on one bank isn’t ideal.

I got an excellent email from a friend regarding trading and I’ll expand on that on my next post but for the moment I’ll leave it here as I’ve got the house to myself for the first time this week and I’m going to take advantage of some P and Q.

Hope you’ve had a profitable week and have an enjoyable weekend.

Moving On

dubaitrader — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 05:43:19 +0000

Time is rapidly counting down to leaving Dubai and I’m looking at leaving at the beginning of May. I’ve had to renew my passport so as soon as that is ready, it’s goodbye Dubai, hello Gold Coast.

It was nice then to get off to a good start and it means I can plot my course carefully today as TUFXP signalled an early winner. It’s a feast of economic news releases this week so fingers crossed I can get some action out of SNW. There are roughly 9 reports worth trading and I’ll be disappointed if at least 1 or 2 don’t provide action.

I’m going to pack the racing on the head for now as the time difference in Australia will be +9 hrs which means racing won’t be getting underway until gone 11 PM which is just to late in the day for me. Trading will be a little out of sync also with me starting at 3pm local time and hopefully finishing by 9-10pm. At least it means I can get jobs done early in the day and then be ready for trading in the afternoon.

Well, I’ve got boxes to pack and things to sell so I best get to it.

Thousand Things

dubaitrader — Thu, 15 Apr 2010 09:47:14 +0000

I haven’t had too much time to trade this week with a lot going on trying to get everything organized for the move next month. My head is in a thousand places and it’s difficult to concentrate and it showed on Tuesday. A complete wash-out and a very disappointing result but Wednesday and today have seen my target met so I’ve quit whilst I’m ahead. I’m taking the dog to the vet this afternoon to get her rabies test done and a few other vaccinations that are required to be legible to enter Australia.

Amongst the list to do is to renew passport, organize garage sale, storage for items that we’re keeping and shipping, find a foster home for the dog and cats, the list just goes on and on!

I’ve noticed Cash-master is a running a trial of the upgraded The Ultimate Forex Predictor so I’ve decided I’ll run the same test following exactly his rules. My one hesitation is that the stop is always larger than the scalp meaning two losses and stopping will probably take 3-4 wins to recover. Anyway, should be an interesting comparison. I’m surprised he doesn’t use the pivot points available as I do actually find they are incredibly useful for exiting a trade or using as a guide to placing your stop-loss.

Destined

dubaitrader — Tue, 23 Mar 2010 14:09:56 +0000

It’s been a slow and very unspectacular day today with all of my gains coming before 9 AM UK time. I’ve briefly glanced at charts just to make sure I’m not missing the mother of all setups but alas, it has been very calm and boring. Still, if boring means making 6-7% I’m all for it!

I think I’m destined to never get a successful news trade with SNW. Two worthwhile reports today with the GBP CPI y/y and US home sales. CPI missed my trigger by 0.1 but reacted perfectly to the release of 0.1 worse than expected. Then up next was the US existing home sales. I had to go back to Sept 08 to find when it last deviated so little from expectations. It meant a further no trade and with only two further possibilities this week left for a decent trade, time is very much running out. Professional news traders must surely experience the longest dry spells ever! A guy on FPA (forex peace army) who trades it for a living hasn’t had a trade in over 3 weeks! Yikes!

Still, it’s been a profitable day and I’d take them every single day so I guess I’m just a tad frustrated with the news thing as I really was expecting some action during the trial.

Secret News Weapon

dubaitrader — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 09:16:43 +0000

An early finish for me today as I’m on babysitting duties for the rest of the day. A pretty decent morning so probably a good idea that I’m finishing as I don’t really want to risk any more pips. I might if I can look at the news releases a little later.

The software I’ve been trying out the last few weeks is called ‘Secret News Weapon’. It claims it can enter you in a trade pre spike and be able to ride the spike as a result of the news. I’ve always been interested in trading news releases as the idea of quick gains appeals to me as I’m sure it does to most people. After receiving my login details I was able to download the software needed to trade news items. I watched the videos necessary to get familiar with the software and it seemed pretty straight forward. The main area of focus is the trigger. This is the deviation from the forecast news item. Using NFP as an example as it always produces a mammoth spike, let’s say it’s forecasted at -30k. I set a trigger of 15. This means if it comes out at -15 or -45 I get entered into a trade. You set up the software so it knows whether to buy or sell depending on the actual number released. So far, so good. You can set your own triggers and be safe in the knowledge that if it deviates enough from the forecasted number, you’ll get entered in the correct direction. Except it never enters. I’ve had 4 news items that have hit my trigger and every time I’ve been requoted by my broker. The news is delivered in 100 milliseconds but this appears to be not quick enough. I will persevere for now though as I’m following a full-time news trader who has also struggled to get filled of late on exactly the same releases. Obviously the key with this software is to find a broker who doesn’t massively widen their spreads pre news and who will offer genuine fills when getting the required trigger.

The support team suggest trying various brokers on demo but that really isn’t going to prove anything as the difference between demo and live is like night and day. You don’t experience requotes or bad fills on demo accounts so until you try it live, you just won’t know if the broker is worthwhile or not.

It’s certainly not cheap either at $299 a month after the initial $69 30 day trial. I’ve got 10 days left before the $299 kicks or I can cancel it. If I can get a decent fill on a trigger then it will pay for it in one trade but so far the first trade has proved illusive. I’ll report back after the trial is over and hopefully I’ll have got a decent trade in!

Finally, to whoever the sad person is who keeps voting each post as very poor.. just how sad are you? If you really don’t enjoy reading the blog then it’s pretty easy to just stop reading, don’t you think? Or do you think it’s clever to keep doing it? Bravo.

Wheels Came Off

dubaitrader — Thu, 18 Mar 2010 17:55:57 +0000

Wow, today was the day the proverbial camel’s back was nearly broken. An absolute mountain of trades today and definitely a case of over trading. TUFXP fired over 7 trades at me today and all in clusters and it was annoying the absolute shit out of me to say the least.Yesterday was the first day of the month where I let my emotions get the better of me and I let it slip big time. I did 3 pointless, half-hearted trades that I tried to reason with. They all lost and cost me an extra £700 for my troubles. The most annoying thing was, that in hindsight, I wasn’t even in a bad spot. I was down less than half a percent for the day but for some reason beyond me, I felt the desire to try to push it and make a profit for the day and push past the £6,000 barrier. Needless to say it didn’t work and I think deep down I knew it wouldn’t. Reckless trading at it’s finest.

I was in all sorts of bother today and statistically speaking, I should have been down around 10% but two awesome trades on EURUSD from very early this morning made sure today wasn’t the disaster it so nearly could have been.

The main question is thus: Why did I push myself yesterday? After all the talking and discipline I’ve tried to put back in my trading, it all fell away for no other reason than to be greedy. It disappoints me and troubles me as to why I still feel the need to act like that. How many long, hard looks do I need before a) I lose it all or b) it finally sinks in. Anyway, it’s late and I’ve still got a ton left I want to chunter on about but I’ll save it for tomorrow..